Spain data on 5.5 million convictions challenges immigration-crime link Gaby Clark Scientific Editor Andrew Zinin Chief Editor When analyzing crime, the foreign population typically shows higher rates than the native population. However, crime statistics change significantly when comparing groups of the same age and gender. A detailed data analysis conducted in a study by the Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (UC3M) demonstrates that the apparent crime gap between the foreign and native populations is primarily due to the fact that the immigrant profile tends to concentrate more young men—the demographic sector with the highest crime rates in any society.

The research, recently published in the Revista Española de Investigaciones Sociológicas, concludes that structural and socioeconomic factors explain the crime gap and endorses regularization policies as effective security tools. "This work provides empirical evidence in a recurring social debate and concludes that immigrant status, on its own, does not explain crime levels once demographic factors and the socioeconomic context are taken into account," states the study's author, Jesús Javier Sánchez Barricarte, professor in the Department of Social Sciences at UC3M. Spain has undergone a highly significant demographic transformation in recent decades, going from barely 2% of the foreign population at the end of the 20th century to nearly 14% in 2025.

In parallel, the notion that immigration brings greater insecurity has spread. Given the scarcity of robust empirical studies in the country on this potential link, the researcher set out to verify what the figures actually show. To achieve this, he analyzed more than 5.5 million offenses with final convictions recorded between 2007 and 2023, based on adult conviction statistics from the National Statistics Institute (INE).

"What I have verified is that there is a stark contrast between what is perceived and what the data indicates," the author points out. The key impact of demographic structure One of the study's most significant contributions highlights the need to standardize crime rates to make methodologically valid comparisons. This is because crime is a variable that depends heavily on age and sex (being higher among males and young people), and the immigrant population is, on average, younger and has a higher proportion of males than the Spanish population.

"If we want to compare populations with different demographic structures, performing a standardization exercise is imperative," Sánchez Barricarte explains. When applying this criterion, the statistical reality changes completely: "When rates are standardized, the gap between Spaniards and foreigners is cut in half. In other words, a large part of the gap has nothing to do with being an immigrant, but rather with age and gender structure." The study shows that the remaining difference after standardization is also not explained by immigrant status itself.

When various socioeconomic factors are taken into account, findings indicate that a higher presence of immigrants in a province is not associated with higher crime rates.